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Like @Lockdownyourlife , I also didn't have "Military #coup in #Russia" [1] on my 2023 bingo card.
This weekend will be #interesting, in the Chinese-proverb sense of the word.
#wtf #news #russia #churn #proverb
[1] I'm not even sure what to call it. It's not actually the military doing it, it's a commercial/#mercenary #paramilitary. Officially their aim is to #topple the leadership of the #military, not the #civilian #government of the country, but I'm sure #Putin doesn't see it that way.
I'm throwing ideas at the wall to see what #sticks, but still don't see a clear path to success for #Prigozhin . Even if he's truthful about this only being about the military leadership, and not a full-blown coup.
The #Wagner Group is a hell of a #paramilitary, but compared to the army, they are undermanned, under-resourced, and under-armed. I do not believe Wagner would have a chance in a head-on clash with the #army.
So far I've come up with one ending that isn't a #wipeout for Wagner.
... and that is he's trying to get the people under #Shoigu and the senior #generals to attempt a coup of the military leadership and the #Ministry of #Defence .
He believes the senior leadership of the military and the defence staff are #political appointees and #incompetent #cowards. Getting the people under them to rise up and throw them out might seem like a way to get the #war in #Ukraine back on track?
Or perhaps he really has #soured on the war, and it is a #coup attempt.
If he can behead the military and ministry of defence and install competent leaders, would he be happy to lead his men back to their barracks, or back to Ukraine?
Unknown.
If he did, would Putin trust him?
Highly unlikely.
So Putin would almost certainly kill #Prigozhin anyway, even if he said nice things in the meantime. And Prigozhin is not stupid, so he knows this. And therefore knows #Putin has to die.
One or the other ends up dead either way.
Looking for better analysis...
@cazabon It’s all so typically Russian. Either a palace coup comes next or a pretender to the throne. Or both. Putin has tried so hard to take Russia back to the eighteenth century, he might just succeed—in the role of Peter III